METEO CONSULT WEATHER bulletin for Tuesday, April 29

General situation

This Tuesday, the flow is clearly strengthening between the 1030 hPa high pressure system and the low pressure system off the coast of Portugal with the passage of a cold front. A strong northeast trade wind is blowing between the Canary Islands and Cape Verde.

Wednesday, active depression at 998 hPa north of Madeira with a weakening trade wind regime off the Canaries, but still active off Cape Verde.

On Thursday, the trade winds will still be present off Cape Verde, blowing from the east-northeast, with the 1025 hPa high pressure system over the Atlantic moving a little further south.

Weather conditions at sea for the Transat Paprec

This Tuesday morning at 7 a.m., the entire fleet set off on the Atlantic race with a promising start to the crossing under a well-established and active trade wind regime of around twenty knots. Unfortunately, the duo of Arno Biston and Vittoria Ripa Di Meana on Article1 decided to abandon the race after a technical stop on the island of Tenerife, their second spinnaker having torn during the night. They realized that no repairs were possible before Wednesday. They could leave for mainland France at the end of the week. Now, there are only 18 duos left in the race, all of them eager to snatch victory, and anything is still possible at this stage. And for good reason, the first 13 competitors in the race are less than 50 miles apart, with a very exciting competition. So, this is not the time to give up, even if fatigue is starting to set in. It's essential to stay focused over the next few days on a route that promises to be anything but easy. The leading duo, Charlotte Yven/Hugo Dhallenne on Skipper Macif, are barely able to pull away, and the standings are tight. Most are currently neck and neck, choosing the same route while sailing at between 10 and 15 knots, a little south of the direct route.

Tuesday, April 29

This Tuesday, the trade winds remain vigorous, and even powerful, along the skippers' route, especially on the southern part of the direct route to Saint-Barthélemy (hence the sailors' choice of south), thanks to the passage of a cold front that will reinvigorate this regime, gradually turning right again. They will have to be strategic to find the right compromise between speed and choice of course, all in conditions that will be tough for our competitors, which will put their nerves to the test in the open Atlantic. At this stage, the fleet will be sailing across the Atlantic at high speed under a trade wind of around twenty knots (20 to 25 knots), occasionally reaching 26-28 knots. The skippers will have to make several gybes to maximize speed, while remaining as comfortable as possible. Overall, they will stay on starboard tack in this east-northeast regime. They should even ease their sails a little to maintain this frenetic pace. This will also be the time for our competitors to think about their strategy for the coming days with a weakening of the trade winds expected for this weekend finally, as we gradually approach Saint-Barthélemy.

Wednesday, April 30

On Wednesday, a ridge of high pressure is expected to gradually swell north of the direct route to the finish. This is because a low pressure system that will drop low in latitude off the coast of Portugal will slightly cut into the trade winds, since the influx of air on the right side of the high pressure system will be reduced. It is at this point that our skippers will have to make a decision on the strategy to adopt for the rest of the race. For the fastest in the fleet, this trade wind system will remain well established (at around 18 to 20 knots) during the course of Wednesday near the direct route, enough to take advantage of gaining a few miles, without necessarily making a significant detour to the south. This trade wind will turn slightly to the right again, with a flow almost due east. To then maintain air and downwind conditions under this trade wind regime, it will be necessary to gently veer towards the southwest to try to circumvent the growing influence of the high pressure system further north and therefore the weakening of the trade winds expected on the direct route over the following days. The competition will be fierce with several strategies that will emerge, between detours of several hundred miles to maintain speed, or taking the risk of losing a lot of pressure by taking a direct route.

Thursday, May 1st

On Thursday, the best strategy for our sailors would seem to be to maintain a more southerly route, in order to maintain a trade wind regime that is still established for the day. The further the competitors are behind the leading duo, the more they will have to divert their route south. It is at the latitude of Cape Verde that these trade winds will remain moderate, at 15 to 20 knots, from the east. For the sailors who choose this option, they will still be able to make satisfactory progress on port tack. For the latecomers, they will be less able to benefit from this still fairly active regime, and will probably find themselves under a slightly weaker trade wind regime, in an east-northeast sector with downwind conditions. These trade winds will turn a little more to the right as the hours go by, arriving in an east-southeast flow at the end of the day this Thursday. For the sailors continuing their route southwest of the transect, they will risk having the wind slightly on their beam. A real weakening of the wind is therefore expected to occur by the end of the weekend, as the sailors will gradually lose pressure. It will therefore be necessary to anticipate the next race strategies. Fortunately, they will still have time at this stage to fine-tune their trajectory, as the weakening has been delayed and lessened.

Friday, May 2nd

Conditions are likely to become weaker from this date onwards. As they approach the Antilles, the trade winds should weaken due to a light breeze positioned northeast of Saint-Barthélemy. The trade winds should continue to gradually shift to the right as they approach the ridge of high pressure near the Antilles, where the flow should shift to the southeast at around 10 to 14 knots. The skippers will have the wind on their beam during this part of the race, where their path should always be towards the southern Antilles via the south of the direct route. Some will choose to take an even more southerly and less direct route in the hope of retaining more air, while others will choose to maintain a more direct route but with the threat of finding themselves in an air pocket, and making much slower progress near the light breeze. The trade winds will continue to weaken over the weekend as the winds approach, and the sailors will have more to do. Even if the deadline is still a long way off, an arrival in Saint-Barthélemy is possible around May 9-10.